Any interested party can now see state-by-state forecasts for peak hospitalization vs. capacity due to COVID-19 over the coming four months.
The tool, developed by researchers at the University of Washington in Seattle, also predicts coronavirus-driven mortalities, lengths of stay, days in ICU and ventilator utilization.
Christopher J.L. Murray, MD, DPhil, and colleagues drew data on confirmed COVID deaths from various sources to develop a statistical model positing the expected outlook.
Among the key findings their model presents for the national picture:
- Excess demand from COVID-19 at the expected peak of the pandemic, the second week of April, will be 64,175 total beds and 17,309 ICU beds.
- At the peak of the pandemic, some 19,481 ventilators will be in use in the U.S.
- The next four months will see a total of 81,114 deaths from COVID-19.
- Deaths will drop below 10 per day between May 31 and June 6.
In their project overview, Murray and team suggest healthcare providers and health officials use their estimates to help plan ways to close the gap between supply of and demand for hospital resources.
They note their four-month estimates are predicated on widespread compliance with social distancing measures in all states within the next week. That includes states that have been slow to adopt such measures.
Developing and implementing strategies to, among other things, reduce non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increase capacity, they write, are “urgently needed, given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away.”
Click here for the project overview and here for the state-level forecasts.
Dave P. has worked in journalism, marketing and public relations for more than 30 years, frequently concentrating on hospitals, healthcare technology and Catholic communications. He has also specialized in fundraising communications, ghostwriting for CEOs of local, national and global charities, nonprofits and foundations.