Many organizations are thinking about population health and consider it “critically important” to the future of healthcare, but few are in any payer agreements, according to findings from Numerof & Associates.

Numerof partnered with the Jefferson College of Population Health to look at the transition from volume to value in healthcare.

More than half of respondents (54 percent) rated population health as “critically important” to the future success of their organization and 97 percent said it was more than “somewhat important.”

The majority of respondents (79 percent) who reported that their organization is in at least one agreement with a payer that includes some form of upside gain or downside risk said that 20 percent or less of their organization’s revenues flow through them. That leaves population health still in the realm of “business model experimentation.”

Among respondents reporting agreements with upside gain and/or downside risk, fewer than one in five said that they account for over 40 percent of revenue. However, nearly half said they expect such agreements to account for over 40 percent of revenue within two years. And, two-thirds rated their organization’s ability to manage variation in cost at the physician level as “average” or worse.

Payers are not consistently willing to partner, according to the findings. Only 58 percent of respondents characterized payers as more than “somewhat willing” to enter into cost/ quality risk agreements.

Competing “population health” definitions are holding up progress, according to the study. Some organizations defined it more narrowly (e.g., primarily focusing on wellness), while others saw it as a broader initiative that includes full accountability for patient populations in a given community. Several reported multiple definitions being used internally, resulting in heightened confusion across the organization. Not surprisingly, organizations with a clear and focused approach to population health management were generally much further along.

Numerof conducted 104 in-depth interviews with executives and key decision makers across healthcare delivery organizations nationwide between January 2015 and June 2015. The firm also conducted an online survey and got 315 completed surveys. Respondents included C-suite executives across the entire U.S. in urban, suburban and rural areas, representing stand-alone facilities, small systems and IDNs; for-profit and not-for-profit institutions; academic and community facilities.

“It’s clear that population health management will occupy a significant place in the future of healthcare. It’s also clear that the journey, for many, is formidable," the report concluded. "Ultimately, organizations that go down the path to population health will be building capacity to effectively manage under a new healthcare paradigm. The responses to our survey are clear: the time to act is now.”